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01/24/2012 - Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saying he could never play for another team, veteran catcher Jorge Posada officially retired Tuesday after 17 years with the New York Yankees.
Posada was one of the cogs that helped the storied franchise to its most recent run of five World Series championships since 1996.
The 40-year-old native of Puerto Rico made his big league debut with New York in 1995 and became a regular part of the lineup in 1998 when the Yankees won the first of three straight World Series titles. He was also the catcher for New York's 2009 championship.
"Every time I stepped through the Yankees Stadium doors I quoted Joe DiMaggio, 'I want to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee,'" Posada said during his news conference Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
"I was able to live my dream to play baseball for the best sports franchise... the New York Yankees," Posada added in his opening comments. "Playing for the New York Yankees has been an honor. I could never play for another team. I will forever be a Yankee."
Posada became emotional while thanking his family, teammates, coaches, front office personnel and fans.
"Hopefully, you won't miss me that much," he said with a nod toward longtime teammate Derek Jeter, who was among those in attendance. Mariano Rivera and CC Sabathia were also seated in the audience, along with former teammate and manager Joe Girardi and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.
Posada was a five-time All-Star during his career, in which he batted .273 in 1,829 games with 275 homers and 1,065 runs batted in.
However, he was relegated to designated hitter duties in 2011 and struggled in that role. He hit just .235 with 14 homers and 44 runs batted in.
In May, Posada asked out of the lineup before a game against the Boston Red Sox when Girardi dropped him to ninth in the batting order. He apologized the next day.
Selected by the Yankees in the 24th round of the 1990 draft as an infielder, Posada made the switch to catcher in the minors and is among the top 15 in franchise history in numerous offensive categories. He is eighth in games and home runs, seventh in doubles with 379, 11th in RBI and 14th in hits with 1,664.
Posada appeared in 125 career postseason games and batted .248 with 11 homers and 42 runs batted in. He was the team's top hitter during the 2011 ALDS against Detroit, batting .429 with six hits in 14 at-bats.
Only Hall of Famers Bill Dickey (1,708) and Yogi Berra (1,695) have caught more games for the Yankees than the 1,574 by Posada, who also matched Hall of Famer Johnny Bench's mark of catching at least one game in 17 consecutive seasons with the same team.
Posada also joined Bench, Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk and Ivan Rodriguez as the only players to record at least 1,500 hits, 350 doubles, 275 homers and 1,000 RBI while playing at least half of his games as a catcher.
<< Gotze out for six to eight weeks
Dortmund, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Borussia Dortmund confirmed Tuesday that
young attacking starlet Mario Gotze has been ruled out for six to eight weeks
as it was determined that the midfielder's groin injury is more serious than
first t
<< Salo set to return as Canucks host Oilers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canucks head coach Alain Vigneault feels his team is better
with defenseman Sami Salo in the lineup. He'll put that theory to the test
when the blueliner makes his return to the ice this evening against the
Edmonton Oilers.
<< Wild aim for consecutive wins in road test at Colorado
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wild haven't shown many flashes of hope over their last
18 games, but a confidence-building effort over the weekend could help to turn
things around.
Minnesota looks to win consecutive games for the first time since mi
<< Resurgent Ducks visit sliding Stars
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Their longest point streak in over three years has the
Ducks making up some ground in the Western Conference. In fact, it might not
be too long until they pass the struggling Stars.
Anaheim aims for a sixth straight victor
Kirovski retires, takes coaching job with L.A. >>
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jovan Kirovski has ended his 20-year career and
accepted a position as assistant coach with the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Kirovski, 35, spent five years in a Galaxy uniform, including the final three
years when he
Great Scott: Hartnell headed to All-Star Game for Toews >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Flyers forward Scott Hartnell has
been added to the roster for this weekend's NHL All-Star Game in Ottawa.
Hartnell is replacing Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews, who was
placed on
PPL Park to host 2012 MLS All-Star Game >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Soccer announced Tuesday that the
2012 All-Star Game will be played at PPL Park, the home of the Philadelphia
Union, on July 25 with the opponent yet to be revealed.
It is the first time in a
Panthers D Kulikov has knee surgery >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida Panthers general manager Dale Tallon
announced that defenseman Dmitry Kulikov underwent knee surgery on Monday.
The Miami Herald reported the third-year blueliner will be sidelined for 6-
to-8 wee
Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year
Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.
With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.
Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.
Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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