Large field entered for Lecomte Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/18/2012 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A large field of 13 three-year-olds has been entered for Saturday's $175,000 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course. The mile and 70 yard event is the track's first stakes leading to the $1 million Louisiana Derby on April 1.

Zayat Stables has entered two horses in the stakes. Dan and Sheila, trained by Todd Pletcher, and Z Dager, conditioned by Steve Asmussen, will go off as a coupled entry. The two three-year-olds will start next to each other with Dan and Sheila breaking from post five with John Velazquez riding and Z Dager being ridden by Shane Sellers from the six hole.

Dan and Sheila won first time out on December 17 at Gulfstream Park. The Lecomte is just his second career start. Z Dager has already won at the mile and 70 yard distance, breaking his maiden two days before his stablemate at Fair Grounds.

The other coupled entry is Adena's Chance and Hero of Order, both owned and trained by Gennadi Dorochenko. Adena's Chance has drawn the inside post with Marlon St. Julien in the saddle and Iram Diego will ride Hero of Order from post 10.

The two colts are well experienced having 12 and nine starts, respectively. Adena's Chance has two wins, a maiden victory at Arlington Park last September and a claiming race win in October at Hawthorne. Hero of Order found the winner's circle for the first time earlier this month at Fair Grounds.

Here is the field for the Lecomte from the rail out: Adena's Chance, Marlon St. Julien; Ted's Folly, Jose Medina; Mr. Bowling, Robby Albarado; Exfactor, Shaun Bridgmohan; Dan and Sheila, John Velazquez; Z Dager, Shane Sellers; Seven Lively Sins, Rosie Napravnik; Alexander Thegreat, John Jacinto; Hammers Terror, James Graham; Hero of Order, Iram Diego; Chalybeate Springs, Brian Hernandez Jr.; Capetown Devil, Corey Lanerie and Shared Property, Leandro Goncalves.

Post-time for the Lecomte is slated for 5:55 p.m. (et).

The $300,000 Risen Star Stakes is next for local three-year-olds on Saturday, February 25.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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